TO: The Select Committee on Finance, Parliament

BY: Made on behalf of the South African Association of Consulting Engineers (SAACE)

DATE: Tuesday, 16 September 2003

Preferential procurement is one of the tools that the state may use to transform the socio-economic landscape in South Africa. Transforming a country where serious inequalities have existed for more than 300 years is, however, not a task for the faint-hearted.

There are various ways in which the state can go about this transformation. The starting point, we suggest, is the preamble to the Constitution, Act 108 of 1996.

It reads that the Constitution was adopted as the supreme law of the Republic so as to improve the quality of life of all citizens and free the potential of each person; and to build a united and democratic South Africa able to take its rightful place as a sovereign state in the family of nations.

These are more than mere laudable goals. Section 1 of the Constitution reads that the Republic of South Africa is founded on values like the achievement of equality and values like non-racialism and non-sexism. In our view it is clear that these Constitutional values will only be achieved by programmes like ‘affirmative action’ and ‘black economic empowerment’ which complies with the basic norms and values embodied in section 217 of the Constitution..

The SAACE has a vision for black economic empowerment that it would like to share with the committee. This vision is in line with the ideals of the RDP. First, however, we have to sketch a very bleak (in fact, pale male) picture of civil engineering in South Africa.

The SAACE is defined in its Constitution as a body whose members "are primarily in the business of offering independent technology-based intellectual services in the built, human and natural environment to clients for a fee".

Mr. Peter Silbernagl, Immediate Past President, South African Association of Consulting Engineers presented a paper DEMOGRAPHICS IN CIVIL ENGINEERING: WHAT FUTURE? ,at the SAICE congress in May 2003.

He did an analysis of some of the determinants of the future of civil engineering in South Africa with particular reference to consulting engineering and a preliminary identification of the challenges this analysis presents. A full copy of the paper is attached hereto as Annexure A.

Some salient points form the paper is highlighted hereunder.

The Association adopted a Transformation Charter in 2000 and each mandated principal, i.e. the person representing the member firm, was requested to sign such Transformation Charter and to display it publicly in the offices of that firm. The Association has spoken out against "fronting" by consulting engineering firms and is of the view that fronting is not in the interests of the client, consulting engineers or society.

The Association is also developing an Empowerment Strategy and is negotiating a research contract with the CSIR to undertake a study that will lead to a well-informed and broadly supported strategy. One of the main drivers for this study is the persistent lack of appropriate demographic (race and gender) representation in the engineering fraternity. The industry just does not attract enough new entrants from the Designated Groups (as defined in the Employment Equity Act, Act 55 of 1998). A good start would be to review the trends in and status quo of registrations with the Engineering Council of South Africa (ECSA).

According to the paper, the registration of engineers is undertaken in South Africa by the Engineering Council of South Africa (ECSA), a statutory body in terms of the Engineering Professions Act, Act 46 of 2000. Trends in registration with ECSA could thus be a further indicator of the health of the civil engineering profession (civil engineers – including candidate engineers and technologists – comprise 36,7% of all disciplines registered with ECSA).

Figures from ECSA reveal that, on 1 April 2003, Black (male and female, including Coloured and Asian) professional engineers comprised approximately 2,8% of all registered professional engineers in the civil engineering discipline. The table in figure 13 shows that the intake of candidate engineers (previously engineers-in-training) with ECSA may, on the surface, appear as an improvement (23,8%), but in absolute terms the total number of black engineers-in-training registered with ECSA as on 1 April 2003 was 161 persons, i.e. less than one per local authority in South Africa!

An analysis of the ECSA registrations over the past ten years shows that, since 1998, total registrations of professional engineers in the civil engineering disciplines have declined from 6 894 to 5 980, i.e. an average of 183 per year. During that period, the number of Black professional engineers (including African, Coloured and Asian, and Black women) registered with ECSA in the civil engineering discipline increased from 154 (2,2%) to 170 (2,8%) individuals. The number of White women increased from approximately 98 (1,4%) to 107 (1,8%) individuals.

Figure 14 – Professional Engineers as registered with ECSA in the civil engineering discipline

A further look at the New Registrations as Professional Engineers and Candidate Engineers with ECSA shows alarming reductions in new registrations. Whereas a total of approximately 230 PrEng registrations have been lapsing every year for the past five years, only about 50 new registrations have entered the pool, leading to a nett decline of about 180 PrEng registrations per annum (see figure 15).

Taking a look at the information from a demographic point of view shows that new registrations for both Professional Engineers and Candidate Engineers for both Blacks and females have in fact declined since 1996/97!

Horak concluded that the "fall out" rate in civil engineering at universities is approximately 31% from entrant to graduate level. Data obtained from a few universities corroborates the finding by Horak, but also highlights the fact that in order to assess the rate of entrance of new civil engineers, it would be best to analyse the figures of graduates only (see figure 17).

Figure 17 – Graduates vs Intakes (Civil Engineers): Summary from 8 universities

It should be noted that neither the information for the ECSA registrations, nor the university graduates, deal with citizenship, which could become an issue when formulating strategies with respect to Procurement Policies and Employment Equity Plans! Of significance, though, for ECSA, the Association and SAICE, is the fact that in 2000 white males comprised 62% of all civil engineering graduates at South African universities! (see figure 20).

Thus even if the percentage of white males graduating in civil engineering were to reduce to 5% within the next five years, it would take at least a further 45 years until the demographic distribution of the SAICE members and the Professional Engineers registered in the civil engineering discipline would match the general demographics in the country. Of course, more drastic measures like early resignation from SAICE or lapsing of registrations (voluntary or otherwise) would speed up this process. Interventions such as quotas at universities have been used before in South Africa! One shudders to think what impact this may have on economic growth and development. In all likelihood, the process would take a very long period.

Of course, the assumption is that there would be matriculants with higher-grade maths and science, and that these matriculants would prefer civil engineering to other choices.

Our future civil engineering university graduates and professional civil engineers should come from a pool of school leavers matriculating with higher grade maths and science. An analysis of the matriculants provides a most disturbing picture, as seen in figure 21. It demonstrates the devastating effect of the legacy of not having provided higher grade maths and science teachers in the so-called Black schools in the past. From these figures it appears that the number of Black (African) matriculants passing with higher-grade maths is reducing. Why would the few who matriculate with higher grade maths choose a career in engineering, specifically civil engineering, when there are alternatives such as IT, management consultancy, accounting, business management, medicine and others available to them? Making more bursaries available to these high quality matriculants, on its own, will not solve the problem.

Of course, all efforts must be made to improve the teaching of maths and science, particularly in the so-called Black schools, and many of our members participate in special maths and science teaching programmes. Tribute must also go to the National Department of Education for the National Strategy for Maths, Science and Technology Education and to the Western Cape Department of Education for its Maths, Science and Technology Strategy, including the launch of the Centre of Science and Technology. Some successes have been reported, but in some areas it is of a very low base, e.g. in 2001 only 28 matriculants passed with higher-grade maths from "DET" schools in the Western Cape.

Many other notable efforts have started elsewhere, including more broad-based approaches such as the one by the Gauteng Department of Transport, which is reported to provide additional maths and science education to 800 scholars.

Necessary as these efforts are, they are not enough to make the profession attractive enough for new entrants to remain in civil engineering.

The vast majority of the registered civil engineers are pale male. As was said above, the failure to provide higher-grade maths and science teachers in the so-called Black schools in the past, has left a devastating legacy. It appears that the number of Black (African) matriculants passing with higher-grade maths is reducing. Why would the few who matriculate with higher grade maths choose a career in engineering, specifically civil engineering, when there are alternatives such as IT, management consultancy, accounting, business management, medicine and others available to them?

It is imperative that funds and skills are invested in providing higher grade maths and science teachers in schools all over the country.

The lack of black and female faces in engineering, however, flies in the face of government policy. In the Western Cape, for instance the proposed Preferential Procurement Implementation Plan of the Department of Transport and Public works of the Western Cape sets a totally unrealistic participation target for:

HDI Ownership of at least 40% for all goods and services procured.

Woman / Disabled of at least 20% within 5 years for all goods and services procured. These targets do not relate to reality.

When comparing these targets to the reality of the demographics in engineering, it becomes evident that there is a chasm between theory and reality. SAACE agrees with the government that there are too few Black or women engineers.

But what should SAACE do until there is a bigger field of matriculants with higher grade science and maths to draw from? It is not possible for a pale male to change his gender or his race.

We are now proceeding to discuss the relevant legislation and will then make certain proposals on transforming the demographics of engineering and building the country as a whole. Planning and supervising building is what civil engineers are trained to do.

Section 217 (1) of the Constitution sets certain standards for any organ of state that contracts for goods or services. The procurement must be done in accordance with a system, which is fair, equitable, transparent, competitive and cost-effective. Subsection (2) allows ("does not prevent") the organs of state to implement a procurement policy providing for:

(a) categories of preference in the allocation of contracts; and

It is of great significance that national legislation must prescribe a framework within which the policy referred to in subsection (2) must be implemented. The section had read earlier on that the policy referred to in subsection (2) may be implemented. It has been amended to must.

Compare the obligation that national legislation must prescribe a framework within which the procurement policy must be implemented, with the contents of section 2 of the Constitution.

In section 2 it is stated that the Constitution is the supreme law of the Republic; law or conduct inconsistent with it is invalid, and the obligations imposed by it must be fulfilled. It is thus imperative that national legislation prescribes a framework policy for all cases where a policy provides for categories of preference in the allocation of contracts and the protection or advancement of persons (or categories of persons) disadvantaged by unfair discrimination.

In the matter of EX PARTE CHAIRPERSON OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL ASSEMBLY: IN RE CERTIFICATION OF THE CONSTITUTION OF THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA, 1996* 1996 (4) SA 744 (CC) the court held that the provision in the chapter that national legislation should determine a framework for affirmative action policies in respect of procurement was consistent with CP XXI, and was not an encroachment on the legitimate autonomy of the provinces. (Paragraph [285] at 857E.)

In the matter of PRETORIA CITY COUNCIL v WALKER 1998 (2) SA 363 (CC) the court held that a requirement of s 33(1) was that a right could only be limited by a law of general application and, since the respondent's challenge was directed at the conduct of the council, which was clearly not authorised, either expressly or by necessary implication by a law of general application, that s 33(1) was not applicable to the present case. (Paragraph [82] at 396E/F--G, 415G/H--I/J.)

The right which we are referring to in these cases [where a policy provides for categories of preference in the allocation of contracts and the protection or advancement of persons (or categories of persons) disadvantaged by unfair discrimination] is the right to equality.

The basic principle that was established by our Constitution, Act 108 of 1996, is that everyone is equal before the law and has the right to equal protection and benefit of the law. (Section 9(1)). This echoes what was said in the Preamble: ‘every citizen is equally protected by law’.

Section 33 to which the Walker case referred, has been replaced by the current s36, which deals with the limitation of rights. S36 (1) reads that the rights in the Bill of Rights may be limited only in terms of law of general application to the extent that the limitation is reasonable and justifiable in an open and democratic society based on human dignity, equality and freedom.

In line with the reasoning of the court, preferential procurement policies should also be reasonable and justifiable.

When one compares this to the obligation in section 217 (3) of the Constitution that national legislation must prescribe a framework within which the policy referred to in subsection (2) must be implemented, then it appears that no policy that does not fall squarely within a law of general application prescribing a framework, may be lawfully implemented.

The phrase in section 217 (2) "does not prevent" organs of state from implementing a procurement policy providing for categories of preference and the protection or advancement of persons, means that the organ of state has a choice whether it wants to implement such a policy. But, when it decides to implement such a policy, it must implement the policy within the framework prescribed by national legislation.

The PREFERENTIAL PROCUREMENT POLICY FRAMEWORK ACT 5 OF 2000 and the Regulations issued in terms of the Act is the law of general application that sets a framework for the implementation of a preferential procurement policy. In terms of section 2(1) of the act an organ of state must determine its preferential procurement policy and implement it within the framework prescribed in the act.

In terms of the definitions clause in section 1(i) of the Act, acceptable tender means "any tender which, in all respects, complies with the specifications and conditions of tender as set out in the tender document". Section 2 (1) (c) also refers to tender(s).

This leads one to infer that the act only refers to those cases where there was a tender document with the specifications and conditions of tender. This means that the Act does not regulate all instances where the state implements a procurement policy providing for categories of preference in the allocation of contracts and the protection or advancement of persons, or categories of persons, disadvantaged by unfair discrimination (as set out in section 217(3)). This is despite the fact that section 217(3) instructs that national legislation must prescribe a framework within which the policy referred to in subsection (2) must be implemented.

At a glance it seems that the act is seriously flawed in that it only provides a framework for cases where an invitation to tender have been put out. There is no framework that applies when professionals do work on a tariff-based system when tenders are not called for. The Act therefore does not fully fulfil its obligations set by s 217 of the Constitution.

The Preferential Procurement Regulations R725 of 10 August 2001 defines "Contract" to mean "the agreement that results from the acceptance of a tender by and organ of state".

"Tender" means "a written offer or bid in a prescribed or stipulated form in response to an invitation by an organ of state for the provision of services or goods".

In terms of Regulations 2(3) of the Regulations an organ of state may deviate from the framework contemplated in section 2 of the act in respect of a pre-determined tariff based professional appointments.

However, the moment an organ of state implements a procurement policy providing for categories of preference in the allocation of contracts; and the protection or advancement of persons (or categories of persons, disadvantaged by unfair discrimination) the organ of state must implement the policy within a framework that must be prescribed by national legislation.

This means that the moment there is any policy to advance previously disadvantaged persons, the policy framework prescribed by national legislation must be adhered to. It is doubtful whether regulation 2(3) of the regulations can lawfully allow an organ of state to deviate from the framework contemplated in section 2 of the act in respect of a pre-determined tariff based professional appointments.

The fact that there may be deviations from the prescribed framework has already lead to certain Procurement Policies of organs of state not only deviating, from but being contrary to the principles of the Constitution and the PPPF Act. Examples e.g. from the Eastern Cape Provincial Administration and the Western Cape Provincial Administration can be provided to the Committee, if so required.

The attention of the committee is drawn to the Green Paper on Public Sector Procurement Reform in South Africa. In paragraph 4.5 the appointment of consultants is discussed from pages 101 to 107 and it inter alia stated that:

" The calling for open tenders under all circumstances, even for routine

SAACE agrees in essence with these views expressed in the Green Paper. A distinction should remain regarding the appointment of Consultants on the following methods:

• Tariff appointments (fixed scales of fees or prescribed rates)
• Competitive tendering

It is in the interest of all stakeholders that the possibility of making tariff appointments without going through the procurement process should not be removed. The appropriate way to deal with this aspect as far as preferential procurement is concerned is to have two appropriate frameworks:

• A framework for competitive bidding; and
• A framework for tariff appointments.

In terms of Regulation 17 of the regulations, the tendering conditions may stipulate that specific goals, as stipulated in section 2(10) (d) (ii) of the Act, be attained. The act states in this section that the specific goals may include implementing the programmes of the Reconstruction and Development Programme as published in Government Gazette 16085 dated 23 November 1994. A number of activities may be regarded as a contribution towards achieving the goals of the RDP. Some of the relevant ones are:

• The promotion of enterprises located in a specific province for work to be done or services to be rendered in that province. The same applies to municipalities and regions.
• The empowerment of the work force by standardizing the level of skill and knowledge of workers.
• The development of human resources…
• The upliftment of communities through housing, transport etc.

Our vision is

• That the SAACE and its members be granted points for creating the infrastructure to meet the needs of the RDP while Historically Disadvantaged Individuals receive the opportunities and encouragement to train as civil engineers.

According to the RDP White Paper, these large scale developments are expected to stimulate the economy through the increased demand for producer and consumer goods and services. In itself this will create jobs and serve the Historically Disadvantaged.
The SAACE is prepared to work with government to develop human resources;
The SAACE is interested in assisting government in developing a policy to plan training in maths and science from the pre-school upwards. 
  

All of this accords with the Preamble to the Constitution that states that: ‘we therefore, through our freely elected representatives, adopt this Constitution as the supreme law of the Republic so as to-

SAACE is aware of questions being raised by certain roleplayers whether the system on fixed tariff appointments should not be terminated. This would result in tenders being the only applicable system. For the reasons fully set out in the Green Paper quoted above, SAACE is opposed to the possible scraping of the fixed tariff appointment system.

The correct way to deal with this issue is NOT to do away with fixed tariff appointments, but to also develop a framework for fixed tariff appointments.

Both the Preferential Procurement Policy Framework Act, 5 of 2000, and the Regulations issued in terms of the act, refer in the definition of "contract" and "acceptable tender" and is applicable only to those cases where there was a tender document with the specifications and conditions of tender. This means that the prescribed framework does not regulate all instances where the state or organs of state implements a procurement policy providing for categories of preference in the allocation of contracts and the protection or advancement of persons, or categories of persons, disadvantaged by unfair discrimination (as set out in section 217(3) of the Constitution).

This is despite the fact that section 217(3) instructs that national legislation must prescribe a framework within which the policy referred to in subsection (2) must be implemented.

At a glance it seems that the both the Act and the Regulations are seriously flawed in that it only provides a framework for cases where invitation to tender have been put out. There is no framework that applies when professionals do work on a tariff-based system. It can thus be argued that both the Act and the Regulations issued in terms of the Act does not fulfil its obligations set by s 217 of the Constitution.

1. The Preferential Procurement Act should be looked at again to provide the framework contemplated in section 2 of the act (the advancement of previously disadvantaged people), also in respect of pre-determined tariff based professional appointments where tenders are not called for.
2. Such a framework for fixed tariff appointments should be drafted in consultation with all stakeholders

Submitted on behalf of SAACE and prepared by

ATTORNEY LEN DEKKER ADV. MARIKA VAN DER WALT

An analysis of some of the determinants of the future of civil engineering in South Africa with particular reference to consulting engineering and a preliminary identification of the challenges this analysis presents

Immediate Past President, South African Association of Consulting Engineers

Director, Liebenberg & Stander

P O Box 4733 Tel: 021 421 2430

Cape Town Fax: 021 421 1985

8000 E-mail: [email protected]

At a time when the South African Institution of Civil Engineering celebrates its centenary year, it is appropriate to take stock and to reflect on the status quo of and prognosis for civil engineering.

The South African Association of Consulting Engineers (SAACE) celebrated its 50^th anniversary last year, and so it also seems appropriate to reflect on the status quo of and prognosis for civil engineering particularly within the field of consulting engineering in South Africa.

The word "consultant" is described as "a person providing professional advice, etc., esp. for a fee" – Collins English Dictionary. The SAACE is defined in its Constitution as a body whose members "are primarily in the business of offering independent technology-based intellectual services in the built, human and natural environment to clients for a fee".

The South African Institution of Civil Engineering has several membership grades, with the categories of Member and Fellow forming the heart of the Institution (53% of the qualified members, i.e. excluding students).

Worrying, though, is that the average age of the Members and Fellows is just over 51 and 58 years respectively. The concerns about this relatively high average have been highlighted in papers by Lawless (2002) and Horak (2002). Concerns include: Will there be enough new entrants coming through to replace the Mr Average who will be retired within the next 13 years?

Membership of the South African Association of Consulting Engineers is by firm (not individual). Last year, in its Jubilee year, membership of the Association breached the 400 firm ceiling, and now stands at over 430 firms as members, which in turn employ some 11 000 members of staff (professional, technical and support). Firm sizes vary from one person practices to a few firms with staff complements exceeding 500 people, with one or two firms around the 1 000-employee mark. A typical distribution of the firm sizes is given below:

Thus approximately 90% of all members of the Association qualify for SMME status in terms of the National Small Business Act, No. 102 of 1996.

The predominant number of firms are small firms, i.e. employing fewer than 20 people, and these make up more than 75% of all firms. On the other hand, the largest 12% of firms employ approximately 68% of all staff.

The geographic spread of the fee income given in figure 6 shows Gauteng dominating. An unresolved uncertainty in this survey is whether projects, say, in the Eastern Cape done for National Public Works are classified as Gauteng projects or Eastern Cape projects. Significant, though, is the 21% of fee income generated from outside South Africa. The Association believes that this percentage is under-reported due to various company structures and country-specific legal and tax requirements. It is estimated that a foreign exchange inflow of approximately R900 million is earned annually by members from this work.

A further analysis of the markets (see figure 7) indicates that civil engineering continues to dominate.

Uganda, Nigeria, Egypt, Tunisia

Notably, Namibia is no longer a member of FIDIC.

When one takes a much closer look at the consulting engineering profession, a very different picture emerges. Figure 9 shows the employment trend over the past five years, and also tracks the fee income as gleaned from the Management Information Survey. A slightly coarser evaluation of employment trends, as evident from the annual returns for renewing membership, indicates a similar pattern and, disconcertingly so, also over a longer period. Since 1998 the total number of people employed by members has reduced from approximately 12 600 to 10 800 although the total number of members has increased from 365 to 430 firms, and no big firms have left the Association. Should the members not have earned the fees from work done outside South Africa, the employment levels would probably have dropped by a further 20%.

When one compares the general trend of the most direct indicator of construction activity, gross fixed capital formation, there is no surprise (see figures 10 and 11). It does show though, both from employment levels and from macro-economic analysis, that the opportunities for consulting engineers have reduced by approximately 50% in 25 years – clearly, a "profession in crisis", as it has been described elsewhere.

Not surprisingly, consulting engineers have become more innovative in their offering to clients, and now move up and down the project "food chain" (such as project identification, initiation, funding, and operation and maintenance), or have gone into quite different dimensions on projects (such as community education, debtor management, asset management, etc.).

The P-E Corporate Services salary survey is conducted annually, covering a vast number of employer bodies in South Africa which employ a total of approximately 1,5 million people. A subset of this dataset deals with civil engineers, electrical engineers, etc. and also with consulting engineering firms and their staff. Approximately 80 consulting engineering firms participate in the survey, and since many of these are the larger firms, it is estimated that approximately 80% of all staff employed by member firms are covered by the survey. The survey for September 2001 showed that the gross remuneration package paid to civil engineers working for consulting engineers is approximately 40% lower than those employed elsewhere. This analysis was confirmed in a letter by Martin Westcott, Managing Director of P-E Corporate Services, to Graham Pirie, Executive Director of the Association: "At present the comparative ratio between consulting engineers and total market remuneration ranges between 1,2 and 1,4 for the 25 positions that are described in both surveys, i.e. the national data is on average between 1,2 and 1,4 times the consulting engineers' data. Graduate engineers, technicians/technical assistants show the highest differential. The ratio is 1,42 in the case of graduate engineers."

In the most recent survey (see figure 12) this ratio improved somewhat, but it still shows a differential of almost 40% for graduate engineers.

The Association adopted a Transformation Charter in 2000 and each mandated principal, i.e. the person representing the member firm, was requested to sign such Transformation Charter and to display it publicly in the offices of that firm. The Association has spoken out against "fronting" by consulting engineering firms and is of the view that fronting is not in the interests of the client, consulting engineers or society.

The Association is also developing an Empowerment Strategy and is negotiating a research contract with the CSIR to undertake a study that will lead to a well-informed and broadly supported strategy. One of the main drivers for this study is the persistent lack of appropriate demographic (race and gender) representation in the engineering fraternity. The industry just does not attract enough new entrants from the Designated Groups (as defined in the Employment Equity Act, Act 55 of 1998). A good start would be to review the trends in and status quo of registrations with the Engineering Council of South Africa (ECSA).

Registration of engineers is undertaken in South Africa by the Engineering Council of South Africa (ECSA), a statutory body re-formed in terms of the Engineering Professions Act, Act 46 of 2000. Trends in registration with ECSA could thus be a further indicator of the health of the civil engineering profession (civil engineers – including candidate engineers and technologists – comprise 36,7% of all disciplines registered with ECSA).

Figures from ECSA reveal that, at 1 April 2003, Black (male and female, including Coloured and Asian) professional engineers comprise approximately 2,8% of all registered professional engineers in the civil engineering discipline. The table in figure 13 shows that the intake of candidate engineers (previously engineers-in-training) with ECSA may, on the surface, appear as an improvement (23,8%), but in absolute terms the total number of black engineers-in-training registered with ECSA as at 1 April 2003 was 161 persons, i.e. less than one per local authority in South Africa!

An analysis of the ECSA registrations over the past ten years shows that, since 1998, total registrations of professional engineers in the civil engineering disciplines have declined from 6 894 to 5 980, i.e. an average of 183 per year. During that period, the number of Black professional engineers (including African, Coloured and Asian, and Black women) registered with ECSA in the civil engineering discipline increased from 154 (2,2%) to 170 (2,8%) individuals. The number of White women increased from approximately 98 (1,4%) to 107 (1,8%) individuals.

A further look at the New Registrations as Professional Engineers and Candidate Engineers with ECSA shows alarming reductions in new registrations. Whereas a total of approximately 230 PrEng registrations have been lapsing every year for the past five years, only about 50 new registrations have entered the pool, leading to a nett decline of about 180 PrEng registrations per annum (see figure 15).

When one delves a bit deeper, one discovers that the pending change in registration procedures probably caused a flurry of new PrEng registrations in 1998, but it probably does not explain the continued low level of registrations thereafter. Taking a look at the information from a demographic point of view shows that new registrations for both Professional Engineers and Candidate Engineers for both Blacks and females have in fact declined since 1996/97! (See figures 15 and 16.)

Interesting to note is that the median ages at registration as a Candidate Engineer and as a Professional Engineer are 25 and 34 years respectively.

Horak concluded that the "fall out" rate in civil engineering at universities is approximately 31% from entrant to graduate level. Data obtained from a few universities corroborates the finding by Horak, but also highlights the fact that in order to assess the rate of entrance of new civil engineers, it would be best to analyse the figures of graduates only (see figure 17).

Taking the two Western Cape universities that offer courses in civil engineering, for example, two different pictures emerge (see figures 18 and 19).

It should be noted that neither the information for the ECSA registrations, nor the university graduates, deal with citizenship, which could become an issue when formulating strategies with respect to Procurement Policies and Employment Equity Plans! Of significance, though, for ECSA, the Association and SAICE, is the fact that in 2000 white males comprised 62% of all civil engineering graduates at South African universities! (see figure 20).

Thus even if the percentage of white males graduating in civil engineering were to reduce to 5% within the next five years, it would take at least a further 45 years until the demographic distribution of the SAICE members and the Professional Engineers registered in the civil engineering discipline would match the general demographics in the country. Of course, more drastic measures like early resignation from SAICE or lapsing of registrations (voluntary or otherwise) would speed up this process. Interventions such as quotas at universities have been used before in South Africa! One shudders to think what impact this may have on economic growth and development. In all likelihood, the process would take longer than 60 years, probably closer to 100 years.

Of course, the assumption is that there would be matriculants with higher grade maths and science, and that these matriculants would prefer civil engineering to other choices.

Our future civil engineering university graduates and professional civil engineers should come from a pool of school leavers matriculating with higher grade maths and science. An analysis of the matriculants provides a most disturbing picture, as seen in figure 21. It demonstrates the devastating effect of the legacy of not having provided higher grade maths and science teachers in the so-called Black schools in the past. From these figures it appears that the number of Black (African) matriculants passing with higher grade maths is reducing. Why would the few who matriculate with higher grade maths choose a career in engineering, specifically civil engineering, when there are alternatives such as IT, management consultancy, accounting, business management, medicine and others available to them? Making more bursaries available to these high quality matriculants, on its own, will not solve the problem.

Of course, all efforts must be made to improve the teaching of maths and science, particularly in the so-called Black schools, and many of our members participate in special maths and science teaching programmes. Tribute must also go to the National Department of Education for the National Strategy for Maths, Science and Technology Education and to the Western Cape Department of Education for its Maths, Science and Technology Strategy, including the launch of the Centre of Science and Technology. Some successes have been reported, but in some areas it is of a very low base, e.g. in 2001 only 28 matriculants passed with higher grade maths from "DET" schools in the Western Cape.

Many other notable efforts have started elsewhere, including more broad-based approaches such as the one by the Gauteng Department of Transport, which is reported to provide additional maths and science education to 800 scholars.

Necessary as these efforts are, they are not enough to make the profession attractive enough for new entrants to remain in civil engineering.

The employment statistics as shown by the Management Information Survey (MIS) of December 2002 indicate a steady and improving number of black directors, associates, etc. with the members of the Association (see figures 22 and 23), thus indicating inordinately good progress by members of the Association – in relative terms – but still dismally poor and unacceptable in absolute terms. Not all Partners/Directors and Associates are necessarily professionally registered, but the results do show the intent.

The MIS also shows that with respect to recruitment, approximately 98% of all responses indicate problems with the recruitment of PDI engineers due to lack of candidates (see figure 24).

Clearly there is a tension between the supply (of HDI PrEngs, new HDI entrants) and the demand (of Procurement Policies, of the Employment Equity Act). From the analysis above it is clear that the demographic representivity will not change substantially in the short term. On the other hand, pressure exists on client representatives to demonstrate immediate and substantial progress towards transformation objectives.

It therefore seems reasonable to assume that the civil engineering industry, including consulting engineering firms, will respond in order to remain relevant and competitive, by changing ownership structures and representation on their boards of directors. These new owners and directors would only in rarer cases be Professional Engineers registered with ECSA in the civil engineering discipline. Many would probably be Black businessmen and women, whose careers have probably not grown out of civil engineering initially. How this change in ownership and executive management will impact on the culture and ethics now prevalent in civil engineering, especially consulting engineering, only time will tell.

The most crucial key to the future lies in the Procurement Policies of clients. Will these policies measure transformation objectives by taking into account the professional registration of owners, executive management and staff? The future of civil engineering lies in the answer to that question.

The challenge for the leaders and elected representatives in civil engineering is thus to attract new entrants that would enable a correction of the demographic profile. For this objective to be achieved, the following aspects should be included in a strategy for the profession:

 Improve the risk/reward equation

- Improve opportunities and salaries for civil engineers

- Reduce professional risks (e.g.. limit liability in time and in quantum)

 Promote better image (but only after the above items have been attended to successfully)

- This includes more interaction at schools, universities and on client education

Many of these steps have been started and this bodes well for the future.

The following are some of the factors that improve the prognosis for civil engineering in the future:

GFCF = Gross fixed Capital Formation, one of the best indicators for construction activity.

The potential therefore exists for a substantial improvement in the general climate for civil engineers, and especially for consulting engineers. These opportunities exist both within South Africa and beyond.

The future of civil engineering lies in the hands of the key stakeholders which includes client bodies.

There should be no doubt that the civil engineering fraternity (which includes brothers and sisters) has demonstrated remarkable resilience and ingenuity in weathering the storms over the past few decades. It has also clearly signalled that they are more than ready, able and willing to rise to the challenges. It is now time for the civil engineer to stand up and be counted, to contribute meaningfully to reconstruction and development, to make NEPAD succeed, to fast-track Black economic empowerment and to help with economic upliftment, which should reduce poverty and the impact of HIV/AIDS in the profession, but only if all stakeholders take up their responsibilities.

The question is: Will clients, as stakeholders, help make this partnership work?

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I am indebted to my colleagues Jane Edwards and Zaheer Ortell for their support and assistance in researching and assembling this paper. Grateful acknowledgements for provision of information go to Johan Pienaar of ECSA, Johan van Schalkwyk and Jean Stanford of the South African Association of Consulting Engineers, Prof Emile Horak of Pretoria University and Martin Westcott of P-E Corporate Services.

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