HARVESTING THE WIND IN SOUTHERN AFRICA

Hermann F.W. Oelsner

SOUTH AFRICAN WIND ENERGY ASSOCIATION

P.O.Box 13, DARLING, 7345

Western Cape, South Africa

Tel/Fax: +27 22 492 3095

E-mail: [email protected]

http://sawea.www.icon.co.za

  1. Electricity generation’s contribution to global warming in South Africa
  2. In 1998 alone South Africa pumped a staggering 280 million tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. More than half of this 169 million tons comes from one sector: electricity generation.

    Indeed, between 1993 and 1998 carbon dioxide emissions by the country’s electricity-generating sector increased by 14 %.

    Generated electricity in South Africa 1997:

    Coal-fired

    34 882 MW

    Gas Turbine

    342 MW

       

    Hydro electric

    600 MW

    Pumped Storage

    1 400 MW

    Nuclear

    1 930 MW

    Total

    39 154 MW

    ESKOM Power Stations Capacity 1997:

    Coal 184 952 GWh

    Nuclear 011 775 GWh

    Hydro 1 319 GWh

    Gas 0 GWh

    Renewables & Waste 300 GWh

    Total 198 346 GWh

    South African Energy Mix 1997: Import, Export and losses 1997:

    Coal 93.2 % Electricity Import 29 GWh

    Nuclear 5.9 % Electricity Export 5 579 GWh

    Hydro 0.7 % Distribution losses 15 294 GWh
    Renewables & Waste 0.2 %

    Coal/Water consumption and emissions from ESKOM power generation 1997:

     
    Total
    per kWh generated from coal
    per kWh generated from ESKOM mix
    Coal
    90.2 Mt
    0.52 kg
    0.48 kg
    Water
    224 754 Ml
    1.29 l
    1.20 l
    CO2
    169 Mt
    0.97 kg
    0.90 kg
    SO2
    1382 kt
    7.9 g
    7.4 g
    Nitrogen Oxide
    688 kt
    3.9g
    3.7 g
    Particulate Emission
    83.4 kt
    0.5 g
    0.4 g

  3. UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK ON CLIMATE CHANGE

South Africa ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in August 1997, formally participating in the 3rd Conference of parties (COP 3) in Kyoto, Japan.

The following extracts from the protocol concerning South Africa are quoted :

"Both developed and developing countries accept a number of general commitments. All Parties will develop and submit "national communications" containing inventories of greenhouse gas emissions by source and greenhouse gas removals by "sinks". They will adopt national programmes for mitigating climate change and develop strategies for adapting to its impacts. They will also promote technology transfer and the sustainable management, conservation, and enhancement of greenhouse gas sinks and "reservoirs" (such as forests and oceans).

In addition, the Parties will take climate change into account in their relevant social, economic, and environmental policies; cooperate in scientific, technical, and educational matters; and promote education, public awareness, and the exchange of information related to climate change."

The SA government undertook the preparation of an inventory of emissions:

In 1990, the base year for emissions reporting, South Africa emitted an estimated total of CO2 equivalent an amount of 374 million tons (Mt)/pa for the three main greenhouse gases, CO2, CH4 and N2O. This excludes the amount sequestered in woodlands and plantations ( 20 Mt/pa). Of the emissions 38 % is attributed to electricity generation and 89 % of the CO2 equivalent is emitted in total from the energy sector.

The latest figures from the UNFCCC Secretariat indicate that South Africa is ranked 15th world wide, and is the third largest emitter of all developing countries after China and India (1998 levels).

"Industrialized countries undertake several specific commitments. Most members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) plus the states of Central and Eastern Europe – known collectively as Annex I countries – are committed to adopting policies and measures aimed at returning their greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. (While emissions data for 2000 are not yet available, most developed countries seem unlikely to meet the aim.)

They must also submit national communications on a regular basis detailing their climate change strategies. Several states may together adopt a joint emissions target. The countries in transition to a market economy are granted a certain degree of flexibility in implementing their commitments."

"The richest countries shall provide "new and additional financial resources" and facilitate technology transfer. These so-called Annex I countries (essentially OECD members) will fund the "agreed full cost" incurred by developing countries for submitting their national communications. These funds must be "new and additional" rather than redirected from existing development aid funds.

Annex I Parties will also help finance certain other Convention-related projects, and they will promote and finance the transfer of, or access to, environmentally sound technologies, particularly for developing country Parties. The Convention recognizes that the extent to which developing country Parties implement their commitments will depend on financial and technical assistance from the developed countries."

The clean development mechanism (CDM)

Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol deals with the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) which allows Annex 1 and Non Annex 1 countries to combine efforts in a "common but differentiated effort to reduce emissions.

"The CDM will promote sustainable development by encouraging investments by private firms and governments in projects in developing-countries that reduce or avoid emissions, for example by moving to clean technologies. Developed countries will receive credit against their targets for emissions avoided by these projects. In addition, a levy on the CDM will fund projects that help the most vulnerable developing countries adapt to future climate change impacts."

"North-South cooperation. While only developed countries have targets and timetables for cutting emissions, developing countries can have a role to play in promoting sustainable development and thereby lowering the emissions-intensity of their economic growth. Strengthening their ability to do so will require an agreement on financial and technological cooperation. This should include a framework for capacity building, the necessary funding from developed countries, and practical steps for promoting the transfer of climate-friendly technologies to developing countries."

"The Protocol reaffirms the general commitments of both developed and developing countries under the Protocol. It reiterates the need to take measures to limit emissions and promote adaptation to future climate change impacts; submit information on their national climate change programmes and inventories; promote technology transfer; cooperate on scientific and technical research; and promote public awareness, education, and training. The Protocol also reiterates the need to provide "new and additional" financial resources to meet the "agreed full costs" incurred by developing countries in carrying out these commitments. "

3. RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES

Renewable Energy Sources (RES) are environmental clean sources with additional economic and social benefits. They have received considerable and growing attention around the world the last two decades initially because they have strong potential for mitigating local environmental impacts from electricity generation.

South Africa enjoys abundant renewable energy resources, like solar, wind, wave and biomass. By 2020, these resources could contribute up to 20 % 0f the national electricity production.

Within the next 5-10 years, technologies like wind, hydro and biomass (bagasse and wood waste) could become economically viable without any subsidies.

These are mature technologies that are well established internationally. In the longer term, solar thermal electric or solar PV (depending on the economics) also have a large potential in South Africa.

The country has a very good solar energy resource which could enable low cost energy production as technology costs continue to decline.

Presently, RES are not a major issue in the South African energy industry. In the statistics, RE make up more than 7% of the country’s energy production.

The largest part of this share is in the non-electricity sector, however, the most common use of renewables is the quite inefficient use of fuel wood in the poor rural areas.

Furthermore, South Africa has about 300 000 wind driven bore hole pumps for life stock and community water pumping. Solar water heating is slowly replacing electrical water heating in middle and high income households. The utilisation of passive solar energy will be an increasingly important issue in the future of low cost housing programmes.

In the electricity sector, the share of renewables is even smaller. Among the licensed renewable power stations, there are presently only 8 hydro and 4 biomass power stations. Together they account for less than 1% of South Africa’s power generation.

Potential and Proposed IPPs

At the time of writing the NER has received licence applications or pre application project descriptions from three potential renewable energy IPPs. Of these, DARLIPP (5-10MW wind) and Bethlehem Hydro (10MW) are at the feasibility phase of development and could be implemented within the next 1-2 years. The other project is Green Energy (30MW wave), which is still in a pre-feasibility phase.

It is clear that the proposed renewable energy IPPs are of a smaller scale than the non-renewable energy power plants. This fact that small IPPs tend to be based on renewable energy technologies is due to the relatively small economies of scale that can be achieved by these technologies.

It is likely that once a project such as Darling Windfarm is established, that many other potential IPPs will be identified and developed.

Due to the dominance of the only utility ESKOM in the country there are no Independent Power Producers established yet and Bulk Renewable Energy Electricity Generation could not take any foothold in the past.

This situation has now, however, drastically changed with the introduction in 1998 by the new government’s very progressive White Paper on Energy which favours the introduction of Renewable Energies and encourages the entry of the private sector in to competitive electricity generation ventures:

 

  1. BULK RENEWABLE ENERGY ELECTRICITY GENERATION

Arguably, wind power is world wide the most advanced and commercially available of all renewable technologies. A totally natural source it provides power which is both pollution-free and unlikely ever to run out. In recent years it has been the world’s largest growing energy source.

Our research has shown that for South African conditions wind energy is the most promising and presently most economic of all renewable technologies for bulk energy electricity generation.

 

 

 

 

 

5.1 Global Status of Wind Power

By the end of 1998, more than 10 000 MW of electricity-generating wind turbines were operating in almost fifty countries around the world. Over the past six years the average annual growth rate in sales of wind turbines has been 40 %.

The most successful markets for wind energy in recent years have been in Europe, particularly Denmark, Germany and Spain. There has also been an upsurge in the use of the technology in the United States, as well as in many developing countries, including India, China and South America. Wind energy is successful in a diverse range of economies and geographical terrain.

Wind power is also amongst the cheapest of the renewable energy sources. At good wind sites it is already fully competitive with new traditional fossil fuel and nuclear generation. Its cost also continues to fall as the technology improves and the use of individual sites is maximised.

In recognition of its environmental advantages, many countries have supported wind energy development with government-backed incentives. The aim of these has been to stimulate the market, reduce costs and compensate for the unfair advantage currently held by conventional fuels, for example through state subsidies. A range of market stimulation mechanisms have been used in different countries.

Support for research and development initiatives and fair access for wind power generators to the electricity grid are also important ingredients for the technology’s continuing success.

 

European Wind Energy Projections 2000 - 2010

 

Wind Resources and Electricity Demand

A number of scientific assessments have shown that the world'swind resources are extremely large and well spread throughout six continents. The total available wind resource in the world today that is technically recoverable is 53 000 Terawatt hours per year – about four times bigger than the world’s entire electricity consumption in 1998.

It is clear that the worlds wind resources are unlikely to ever be a limiting factor in the utilisation of wind power for electricity production. Even with wind power generating 10 % of the world’s electricity by 2020, this still leaves most of the resources untapped.

Development of offshore wind sites contributes further potential for satisfying electricity demand.

In Europe, the combined wind resource both on land and out to sea will be enough to meet over 20 % of the anticipated electricity demand in 2020. Improved technology and cheaper foundations could increase this figure significantly, especially from offshore schemes.

The electricity grid is perfectly capable of accepting large quantities of intermittent wind-powered electricity. In Denmark Government plans are for wind energy to account for 50 % of electricity by 2030. Around the world, however, a safe assumption is that 20 % is an appropriate average figure for the potential penetration of wind power into national grid systems.

The INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY predicts that the world will double its electricity consumption by 2020 under business as usual. Growing future demand for electricity means that wind power will need to generate about 2 500 - 3 00 Terawatt hours of electricity per year if it is to meet 10 % of the worlds electricity demand within 20 years.

 

The 10 % Target

On current expectations, wind power is expected to grow at an annual rate of 20 % between 1998 and 2003, resulting in a total of 33 400 MW of installed capacity around the world by the end of that period. To meet the 10 % target, 30 % annual growth from 2004 to 2010 is required, resulting in a total of 181 000 MW installed.

From 2020 onwards, wind power annual growth rates of 20 % will result in a total of 1,2 million MW being installed by the end of the year 2020. This will generate 2966 Terawatt hours of electricity, equivalent to 10.85% of expected world consumption of electricity. By 2040, wind power could be supplying more than

20 % of the world's electricity.

 

Growth of wind energy capacity 1990 – 1999 (MW)

 

Investment, costs and employment

The annual investment requirements of achieving 10 % of the world’s electricity from wind energy will be US$ 3 billion in 1999, reaching a peak of US$ 78 billion in 2020. These figures are a fraction of overall global energy investments, which averaged US$ 170-200 billion per year in the 1990s.

The economics of wind power are compelling. The cost of building and operating wind turbines has already fallen dramatically. In Denmark, the cost of wind energy fell by two thirds between 1981 and 1995.

Studies indicate that the cost of wind-powered electricity will further decrease from today’s 4.7 US cents/kWh to a level below 3 US cents/kWh by 2013 – only 14 years ahead. By 2020, the figure will have fallen to just 2.5 US cents per unit of electricity produced. This will make wind power competitive with all today’s new generating technologies, including large scale hydro.

The employment indications of the 10 % target are significant; more than 1,7 million jobs will be created around the world in both manufacture and installation.

 

The Environmental Benefits of the 10 % target are annual savings of CO2 will be 69 million tons in 2005, 267 million tons in 2010 and 1 780 million tons in 2020.

 

 

 

 

 

5.2 Southern African Status of Wind Power

 

The existing situation is that there are no large wind turbines installed yet. But there are more than 300 000 windmills installed mainly for bore hole water pumping on farms.

There is an old saying:

Wherever you GO you SEE them,

Wherever you SEE them they GO.

Following Europe’s example a realistic target would be to have approximately 4000 MW of Wind Turbine Generating Capacity installed by the year 2020.

This would amount to about 10% of presently installed total generation capacity.

THE WIND RESOURCE

South Africa is blessed with abundant wind, sun and waves. Strong steady winds blow especially along the coastlines.

Professor ROSIANNE DIAB of the University in Durban conducted a preliminary assessments of the resource in 1979 and compiled the "Wind Atlas of South Africa", which was published in 1995 by the Department of Minerals and Energy. One of the shortcomings of this atlas was the choice of 4m/s as a characteristic for good wind potential. This led people to believe that South Africa's best average resource was just over 4m/s.

A dominant topographic feature is the so called Great Escarpment which divides the interior plateau region from the coastal areas. These coastal areas ranging from sandy flats to hilly terrain to steep mountain ranges higher than 2500 m.

This together with the temperature difference between ocean and land results in an excellent wind regime in particular on the West Coast with its cold Atlantic:

7,5 m/s plus

Over the past years many prominent wind experts have past through South Africa and were impressed with the wind conditions:

To quote Dan Lund, Regional Sales Manager of VESTAS, "After a visit to a site in South Africa, I am convinced that there is a lot of sites in South Africa where the average wind speed is higher than 6m/s."

Mike Eckart of Solar Bank estimated a potential of 10 000 MW on the South African West Coast alone.

 

MARKET POTENTIAL

The South African Power Pool is a group of companies in the Southern African region (including Angola, Botswana, Congo (DR), Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia), established to maximise electricity transfers across borders in order to improve efficiency.

The South African Development Community (SADC) is a group of countries in the region with trade agreements. The group includes all of the countries of the SAPP with the addition of Malawi, Mauritius, Swaziland and Zimbabwe.

More than two thirds of the combined GNP is accounted for by South Africa, which has the most developed infrastructure in this area, including four of Africa's biggest harbors, extensive road and rail networks.

South Africa has an extensive electricity transmission grid and currently has an excess of generating capacity.

South Africa acts as the gateway to the Southern African economic region. The development of the South African market will doubtless create opportunities throughout the Southern African Development Community (SADC).

 

THE POLITICAL FRAMEWORK

The South African government pays strong attention to economic and social development, but it also addresses the interdependencies and synergies between development and the energy sector. Through these linkages the energy sector can greatly contribute to a successful and sustainable national growth and development strategy.

The new government has adopted a macro-economic strategy, Growth, Employment and Redistribution (GEAR), which aims at promoting growth through exports and investment; and promoting redistribution by creating jobs and reallocating resources through the budget.

The advantages of renewable energy are set out in the Energy White Paper (1998), particularly for remote areas where grid electricity supply is not feasible. The Government believes that renewable energy can in some cases provide the least cost energy service, particularly when and environmental costs are included, and will therefore provide focused support for the development, and applications of renewable energy. Government policy is based on an understanding that renewables are energy sources in their own right, are not limited to small-scale and remote applications, and have significant medium and long-term commercial potential.

The Energy White Paper encourages the entry of multiple players into the generation market. Initially this policy will be implemented by obliging the national transmission system to publish National Electricity Regulator approved tariffs for the purchase of co-generated and independently generated electricity on the basis of full avoided costs.

THE ECONOMICS OF SOUTH AFRICAN ELECTRICITY GENERATION

ESKOM is the national utility, generating over 80% of the country's electricity, mainly from coal-based generators. ESKOM directly distributes 60% of all electricity and is the only licensed transmitter of electricity.

Government is in the process of breaking ESKOM into six regional distributors and has the intention of structuring ESKOM into separate generation and transmission companies.

Legislation will be introduced to give open access to transmission lines and uncommitted capacity, to bring transparency to tariff structures and to disclose cost and pricing information.

There is a wide range in the price for bulk electricity supply. ESKOM stated that their cost of electricity was O,11 Rand / kWh in 1995. This reflects highly subsidised capital investment and cheap coal inputs.

Bulk purchasers of electricity from ESKOM currently pay anything from 8 to 38 Rand cents, and residential customers pay about 0,30 Rand per unit for normal households and some pre-paid meter customers pay 0,45 Rand / kWh.

Financial analysis for a pilot wind farm in South Africa yield a cost price of around 0,38 Rand / kWh for a 5 MW plant and 0,33 Rand / kWh for a 10 MW plant.

 

 

 

The electricity price in South Africa is likely to come under considerable upward pressure in the very near future:

It is expected that as an example the introduction of Regional Electricity Producers will result in "capping" the cost for poor households at 0,30 Rand / kWh, while the normal domestic consumer can expect an increase of 50 % to 0,45 Rand per unit.

Should wind energy continue to demonstrate the significant downward trend in pricing seen in recent years, it will become a highly competitive source of generation in South Africa.

 

WIND ENERGY PROJECTS IN SOUTH AFRICA

Real pioneering work in Africa is rendered by Gordon Proven of Proven Engineering Products of Scotland. Installation of two 2,5 kW wind turbines for charging a 48 V battery pack with 220 V AC inverters.

There will be another three turbines installed.

This project is currently the best working model in the country to demonstrate the application of wind, mini-hydro and biomass for development and job creation.

It demonstrates also how valuable co-generation could be in the hands of communities that "possess" renewable resources. This is only possible at rates which would allow capital redemption.

Status: Unfortunately the project is in a very remote area and seemed to have come to no further progress.

This identification and Mapping of Renewable Resources for Rural Electrification is covering the area of the Eastern Cape only.

Status: Report available from CSIR Pretoria

The wind part of this project will focus on the feasibility of establishing a 200 MW wind farm.

An international tender was recently issued for the supply of 4 to 6 Wind turbines of various vertical and horizontal designs to be tested to assess "the suitability of Wind Turbines for bulk electricity generation under South African conditions".

ESKOM intends to "sink" close to Rand 90 million into this research project over a period of 3 to 5 years. Funding is from its own (consumers) research funds.

Status: EIA Scoping and Feasibility Study

Status: Results available from DME in due course

Status: Unknown – Not transparent

In 1996 the Oelsner Group identified a site on Moedmag Hill near Darling in the Western Cape as an area well suited to the siting of a wind farm.

An independent company Darling IPP was formed with IBR Rüthlein in Germany to act as liaison between European companies and investors.

Early 1997 Oelsner Group entered into a cooperation agreement with AN Windenergie in Bremen to complete a pre-feasibility study.

13 months wind measurements using two monitoring systems parallel :

a locally made and the German AMMONIT measuring systems.

Results were correlated with 10 years historical wind data from Cape Town Airport, Koeberg Nuclear Power Station and Namaqua Sands at Saldhana.

The result is an excellent wind regime of an average wind speed between 7,5 and 9 m/s at 50 meter hub heights, depending on the location on the hill.

The Capacity factor is 31 %. For a 5 MW Installation a conservatively estimated output is 13,5 GWh per year.

The pattern of the electricity generation will match the demand patterns of the area by being higher in the late afternoon when local demand starts to peak. There is also a good match of supply with demand on an annual basis since the wind is stronger in the summer months when an influx of tourists comes to the coastal towns nearby.

In the interim various organizations have given support to the project, namely :

The Department of Mineral and Energy

The Development Bank of SA

The Danish Co-operation for Environment and Development

Valuable assistance was also given by the CSIR in Stellenbosch for Wind measurements, Financial Analyst Hugh Ashby, Grinaker Construction Cape and Liebenberb & Stander to support the Environmental Impact Assessment and Geographic survey.

The total project value for the first phase of 5 times 1 MW AN BONUS Wind turbines is 40 Mill Rand.

High local interest rates of 16,5 % this results in generation costs of Rand cents/kWh of 38/kWh. This accounts for the comparatively high planning and development costs for a "first - off its kind " project and also comparatively high O & M costs.

The second phase of 5 MW to go out on international tender will double the wind farm capacity and reduce the cost of electricity generated by 5 Rand cents/kWh.

 

10 MW Darling Wind Farm (27 GWh/a)

 

Wind generated electricity replaces coal generated electricity

   

Annual savings

Life time savings (25 years)

Coal

13 939 tons

348 476 tons

Water

   

35 Ml

868 Ml

CO2

26 117 tons

652 912 tons

SO2

   

214 tons

5 339 tons

Nitrogen Oxide

   

106 tons

2 658 tons

Particulate emission

   

12 tons

322 tons

 

 

JOB CREATION FROM WIND ENERGY ELECTRICITY GENERATION

World-wide experience demonstrates that wind energy has a very high job creation effect thanks to its decentralised electricity generation.

Compared with large central power stations, the construction of many small power generation plants results in repetition of work processes for design, production, planning, building permission, marketing, selling, service, maintenance and operation control.

Certain components for example, like rotor blades are manufactured in very labour intensive processes to reach the required high quality standards.

 

Wind energy electricity generation creates 10 times more jobs than nuclear and 4 times more jobs than coal fired power plants.

 

In Denmark for example ( a country with only 5,5 Mill inhabitants ) more people are now employed in the wind energy industry than in the fishing industry. Wind turbines have become the third most important export commodity for the local economy and made Denmark a world leader in this fast growing industry.

Two extensive studies have been undertaken recently on the subject of employment creation in the wind energy sector and have produced enough evidence for the following statement:

In addition to the above quoted figures a 10 MW DARLING DEMONSTRATION WIND FARM will create job opportunities for the Darling tourist industry

( in the first year of operation 30 000 visitors are expected ).

The planned Training and Education Centre will also lead to additional employment.

As the main component of the DARLING SUSTAINABLE ENERGY AND EMPLOYMENT SCHEME Darling Demonstration Wind farm is expected to attract many more activities resulting in additional creation of jobs.

 

  1. CONCLUSION

In conclusion it is obvious, that Wind Power can replace the 1800 MW of installed nuclear generation capacity and is an economic future option for bulk electricity generation in South Africa. The target set by SAWEA for the year of 2020 is 4000 MW of installed wind generation capacity, which represents 10 % of total installed generation capacity.

Our opinion is, that the target of 10 % of present installed total generation, coming from wind by 2020 is conservative and could be reached if a number of key political actions are speedily implemented

South Africa with its abundance of wind resources, its large available land areas and its excellent existing infrastructure has the potential to become a significant "wind power house" of the world.