AN OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH IN SOUTH AFRICA

South Africa is vulnerable to predicted climate change impacts, has an energy and carbon intensive economy (Rowlands 1996a:165), and falls under the top twenty greenhouse gas emitters in the world (DEAT 1998:7). The South Africa government responded through signing the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1993 and developed a position policy on global environmental change in 1993, although it did not really had an impact since then (RSA 1993). In the events leading up to Kyoto, South Africa’s position was described as being most ill-prepared country in the world (Mail & Guardian 1997). South Africa narrowly avoided having only observer status at the Kyoto conference by being the last country who officially ratified the FCCC in August 1997 (RSA 1997). Subsuently, a policy discussion document on climate change (DEAT 1998), and the first National Communications on climate change has been released.

Following the ratification of the UNFCCC, research on the implications of global climate change for South Africa has picked up steadily. Although most is in compliance with the FCCC itself, such as the South African Country Studies on Climate Change, there are some recent signs that more pro-active research is conducted on the threats and opportunities of climate change to South Africa, for example research activity on the Clean Development Mechanism and the impacts of global climate change on the South African economy.

One of the strategic questions for any country developing a position on climate change is whether the supply of research matches the demand for information on key issues pertaining to the debate on global climate change. Where are the research gaps? And subsequently – how can these gaps be closed as well as possible?

The objective of this research paper is to identify climate change research needs in South Africa on the basis of existing research.

Methodology

Major work for this study has been done in September 2000 and updates have been done for the purpose of this presentation. The following steps were employed:

An internet search was done to identify the attributes of research inventories in general.
Key roleplayers in climate change research in South Africa were identified. This list was verified by a few experts in the field and included 71 people.
An email message was sent to all identified people, and followed up by further emails, telephonic discussions, and physical meetings. A total of 31 people was succesfully contacted – which is a 44% response rate. However, the respondents who were contacted identified most of the ongoing research activity in the country as many individuals on the contact list were employed by the same institutions.
A general message was sent to all the members of the Forum for Economics and the Environment, estimated to reach around 450 people, predominantly in South(ern) Africa.
A literature search on South African periodicals, publication lists from the National Research Foundation (NRF), and CSIR internal research reports has been done.
Analysis of research information obtained has been carried out on the basis of key issues in the climate change debate.
Research gaps are identified and suggestions for further climate change research made.
Updates for the period October 2000 – August 2001 was done through a targeted email enquiry to institutions active in the field, and verification with a few key experts in the field.

What is climate change research?

In this work a more loosened definition of research is used, including "softer" activities such as policy advice, client reports, national communications and capacity building activities. The main reason for this is that the key issues emerging from the climate change debate does necessitate research in the strict sense, but at this stage much activity on the strategic and political level is required in developing countries.

The boundaries of climate change research are also not easy to define. The climate change debate has many facets and interlinkages with other research programmes, for example energy efficiency, biodiversity loss, economic performance etc. The complexity in the debate on global climate change has been emphasised in several publications (Munasinghe et al. 1995; Bruce et al. 1996). The ongoing research on integrated assessment and modelling on climate change bears testimony to these complexities (Janssen 1998). The following guiding questions were asked when evaluating whether research can be classified as climate change research or not:

Is the primary motivation of the research related to climate change?
If the primary motivation of the research is not climate change per se, what realistic part of the research is directly related to climate change?

Key issues: What needs to be done?

The first challenge is to develop a framework wherein research can be reported. This framework should facilitate thinking on key research needs in the climate change debate relevant for South Africa. The approach taken here is to analyse international developments in the climate change debate, identify key issues pertaining to South Africa in the climate change debate, and international trends in future climate change research. This analysis serves as the major input in the development of a framework wherein research can be reported.

International developments

The meaning of certain key issues that have emerged in recent years, especially in relation to the Framework Convention of Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol are listed in Table 2.

Table 2: Toward understanding the key issues

KEY ISSUE	NOTES	SOURCE
Adverse effects	Changes in the physical environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious impacts on the composition, resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on human health and welfare [own emphasis](see also FCCC Art 4.8 and Art. 4.9; Articles 2.3 and 3.14 of the Protocol).	UNFCCC (1997a)
Capacity Building	Abilities to deal with various aspects of climate change, such as negotiations, scientific expertise, adaptation, implementation of technology etc.
Compliance	Procedures and mechanisms relating to a compliance system under the Protocol.	IISD (2000)
Development & transfer of technology	Transfer of technology to meet the needs of developing countries arising from adverse effects of climate change (See FCCC Articles 4.8 and 4.9). Five key themes: technology needs and needs assessment, technology information, enabling environments, capacity building and mechanisms for technology transfer. Technology transfer through CDM projects.	IISD (2000)
FCCC Art 4.8 and 4.9	Art. 4.8: Parties to Convention shall give full considerations to what actions are necessary under the Convention, including actions related to funding, insurance and the transfer of technology, to meet the specific needs and concerns of developing country Parties arising from the adverse effects of climate change…(see also adverse effects) Art. 4.9 Parties to the Convention shall take full account of the specific needs and special situations of the least developed countries in their actions with regard to the funding and transfer of technology.	UNFCCC (1997b)
LULUCF	Whether and how to include afforestation, reforestation and deforestation and other agreed land use, land use change and forestry activities in reducing emissions of GHGs.	Watson et al. 2000
Policies & Measures	A broad indication of all climate related policies and measures, including national and sectoral policies and strategies.	IISD (2000); MHSE (1997)
Protocol Articles 2.3 and 3.14.	Art. 2.3: Annex I Parties shall strive to implement policies and measures under this Article is such a way as to minimise adverse effects, including the adverse effects of climate change, effects on international trade, and social, environmental and economic impacts on other Parties, especially developing country Parties and in particular those identified in Article 4, paragraphs 8 and 9, of the Convention… Art. 3.14: In the Annex I countries’ reduction of aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of the greenhouse gases listed in Annex A of the FCCC, each Annex I party shall strive to implement these commitments, in such a way as to minimise adverse social, environmental and economic impacts on developing Parties, particulary those defined in Article 4, paragraphs 8 and 9, of the Convention.	Kyoto Protocol in UNFCCC (1997b)
Protocol Articles 5, 7 and 8	Art 5: Methodological issues related to the GHG inventory Art. 7: Issues related to the communication of the information on the GHG inventory, the demonstration of compliance to the Protocol, and the development of guidelines for national communications. Art. 8 Issues related to the review of information submitted under Article 7.	UNFCCC (1997a)
Protocol mechanisms	Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), International Emissions Trading (IET), Joint Implementation (JI).	IISD (2000)

Source: As listed in table.

The issues listed in Table 2 are most crucial in international negotiations on the global climate change issue. The next question is what issues are pertinently relevant to the SA situation.

Key issues for South Africa

The unique South African context would have to be taken into account when identifying the key issues for South Africa. The following issues are identified and motivated:

Adverse effects on ecosystems, human health and welfare

The potential negative impacts of global climate change on the southern African region has been brought forward on several occassions (Hulme 1996; Shackleton, Lennon & Tosen 1996; Watson et al. 1998; Scholes et al. 1999; UW 2000) and has been recognised by the South African Government (RSA 1993; DEAT 1998). A draft document on the SA Country Study on vulnerability & adaptation shows that South Africa has significant sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change effects, but also has significant adaptive resources to address potential harmful effects (Kiker, forthcoming). An important facet of this vulnerability are expected impacts on human health, especially through the main vector-borne diseases of malaria and schistosomiasis (Kiker, forthcoming).

Adverse effects on the economy

The adverse effects of global climate change come through at least three channels:

First, the international protocols and agreements on climate change could affect the demand for coal. Various studies are currently underway to assess the impacts of climate change in South Africa’s energy and coal economies. South Africa is the fourth largest producer of and ranked under the top three largest exporters of coal in the world (IFS 1998). Coal exports (35% of total production) totalled R9.3 billion in 1999 (Chamber of Mines 2000). This is a significant 6.2% of total (seasonally adjusted and annualised) merchandise exports for 1999 (SARB 2000). In addition, Europe is the primary export market destination, followed by the Pacific Rim (including Japan), where most trading partners have quantified emissions reductions under the Kyoto Protocol (EIA 2000; UNFCCC 1997b). However, alternative opportunities for South Africa’s coal exports is expected in a rapid economically growing Asia.

Second, South Africa’s energy and carbon intensive economy could be vulnerable to international agreements on addressing climate change. Investment, trade and aid patterns are expected to change, which could have both adverse effects and pose opportunities to the South African economy (see Rowlands 1996b:8).

Third, it can be expected that South Africa’s vulnerability to to climate change, in terms of changing ecosystems and human health concerns, would have costs to the economy. For example, precipation changes would impact on an already marginal crop agriculture and spreading diseases would have an impact on the economic productivity of the population.

Kyoto Protocol mechanisms (CDM, JI, IET)

Some of these adverse effects can be addressed through mechanisms under the Protocol, most notably the Clean Development Mechanism (Art. 12 of the Kyoto Protocol). The CDM is an opportunity for developing countries that did not accept binding emissions reductions under the Kyoto Protocol (Toman & Cazorla 1998). The economic rationale for CDM is that the marginal cost of reduction would differ considerably between industrialised and developing countries. Under a CDM industrialised countries could invest in developing country projects, in return "buy" the carbon credits which are then included in the calculation of domestic carbon reduction targets under the Kyoto Protocol. Developing countries would enjoy the environmental and local economic benefits of investments made to reduce greenhouse gases, for example the upgrading of electricity generation, investments to counter land degradation, or planting trees to trap some carbon dioxide (Toman & Hourcade 2000).

Joint Implementation (as specified in Articles 3 and 4 of the Kyoto Protocol) is of little relevance to South Africa as it can only be undertaken between entities in Annex B ( to the Kyoto Protocol) industrialised countries, which includes countries that are undergoing the transition to a market economy (Toman & Cazorla 1998). Activities Implemented Jointly (AIJ) was established at the first Conference of the Parties (CoP1) as a pilot phase of Joint Implementation. The lessons learnt from AIJ are applicable both to JI and CDM projects (OECD 1999).

International emissions trading (IET) (as referred to under Article 17 of the Kyoto Protocol) is also a mechanism for use among the Annex B countries. However, developing countries, including South Africa, could opt into the trading system by assuming national limits (Kopp & Toman 1998).

Therefore, the CDM and IET could provide opportunities to South Africa which need to be further researched.

Technology transfer (TT)

Specific issues related to the transfer of technology cannot be seperated from either the CDM or how developed countries will address adverse effects (under FCCC Art 4.8 and Protocol Articles 2.3 and 3.14). South Africa would have to determine its position on the key themes relating to technology: technology needs and needs assessment, technology information, enabling environments, capacity building and mechanisms for technology transfer.

Land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF)

Based on 1990 figures, South Africa’s uptake of carbon through LULUCF amounts to an order of 4.5 – 5 per cent of gross aggregated emissions of CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O. However, some LULUCF projects would still have strategic importance for South Africa. Scholes et al. (2000) concluded: Although the quantitative impact on national emissions of some of these land-use options is small, and they therefore do not in the long-term substitute for energy-, transport- or industrial-sector interventions, some may be very attractive as short-term options, especially when there are strong associated non-greenhouse gas benefits.

Capacity building (CB)

The adverse effects of climate change on South Africa, as well as the opportunities which are presented under mechanisms such as CDM, would require adequate capacity to respond to these issues in a strategically manner. A research project on the climate change capacity building needs in South Africa has recently been started (Shabodien 2000).

Policy development (PD)

South Africa has obligations and is presented with opportunities under the FCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. To meet these obligations and capitalise on opportunitie the right supportive policies should be in place.

Future research trends

Before a reporting framework for climate change research is developed, one question remain: What are the predictable future tendencies in climate change research? The answer to this question would leave space in the reporting framework for issues that might become important in future. However, an analysis of future research trends is a study in itself, and therefore a few key observations would have to suffice.

As reported in Hasselmann (1997:225), the post-Kyoto climate change research agenda will be dominated by three aspects:

Scientists’ contribution to the public and policy makers through mainly IPCC publications.
The continuous strive to increase on the reliability of scientific predictions. The increased computer power will have benefits especially on subregional scales.
Studying the complex link between pure research and policy making. There is a clear need to transfer climate research into climate policy. To paraphrase Hasselmann 1997:225): The bottleneck in the development of effective climate change policy is not so much the uncertainty of climate predictions as our lack of understanding of the interactions of climate change, the environment and the global socio-economic system. Integrated assessment models are increasingly being developed to guide negotiations, though never able to replace the intricacies of international negotiations or modify the fundamental forces of divergent political interest (1997:226). These models, however, have an important role in guiding negotiators towards an effective long-term strategy for climate mitigation (1997:226).

The first aspect relates to continuous work of IPCC Working Groups (WG) I, II and III. The science of global climate change, the vulnerability and adaptation to climate change impacts and the mitigation of adverse effects of global climate change would continue to dominate the research agenda in the years to come.

The second aspect relates to work done by, predominantly, IPCC WG I and II. Better model predictions would decrease scientific uncertainty on the impacts of global climate change on a regional and even local level. This aspect could also be included in existing research categories.

The third aspect is cross-cutting to all IPCC Working Groups. The science-policy interaction is likely to become an increasingly important future research topic, and could be included under policy development issues.

Responding to key issues: the state of research

What is South Africa’s readiness, especially in terms of research, in responding to these key issues and future research needs? Before this question can be answered a reporting framework is identified.

Types of research

Approach followed in Climate Change Country Studies and in most National Communications

The following categories apply (see MHSE 1997) :

GHG inventory (Inv)
Vulnerability and adaptation (V&A)
Mitigation (M)
Policies & Measures (P&M)
Systematic observation and research (SOR)
Education, training and awareness (ETA)

Approach that ties directly to the key SA issues at international negotiations

The following categories, as identified in section 4.2, apply:

Adverse effects on environment (Aenv)
Adverse effects on economy (Aecon)
Kyoto mechanisms, incl. CDM, AIJ/JI, IET (KM)
Technology transfer (TT)
Land use change & forestry (LULUCF)
Capacity building (CB)
Policy development (PD)

Value of research

The Rand value of research projects have been reported on. Where exact values were not available best estimates within certain orders of magnitude have been used. These orders of magnitude were specified in the survey itself (< R100 000; R100 000 – R250 000; > R250 000). Where orders of magnitudes were not available the most conservative value of comparative studies was used.

Institutions involved

The alphabetical list in Table 3 focuses on the institutions involved in climate change research.

Table 3: Institutions involved in climate change research

Institution	Notes
CSIR Environmentek	The CSIR has been involved in the development of greenhouse gas adaptation studies (Scholes & van der Merwe 1995a) and the greenhouse gas inventory (Scholes & van der Merwe 1995b; Scholes & van der Merwe, forthcoming). Climate change issues are addressed in the state-of-the environment reporting (Scholes et al. 1999). Mitigation study on land use and agriculture (Scholes et al. 2000). A study is done on the effects of elevated CO₂ on savanna plants (Bailey et al. 2000) Other research relates to policy development and includes the development of a framework for economic policy making on complex and dynamic environmental problems such as global climate change (de Wit 2001). Latest research focus on the relationships between CDM and environmental impacts assessments (EIAs) (FEE research on the economics of climate change 2001)
CSIR Transportek	Mitigation study on transport (Naude, Coovadia & Pretorius, forthcoming)
DEAT	Commissioned study on CDM (Koch 2000)
DME	Commissioning a study on the threats and opportunities of global climate change to the economy (Grobbelaar 2000)
DWAF	Commissioned study on carbon sink potential of certain areas in South Africa (SEAG/MESP 2001)
DTI	Not involved in research, but commissioned study on impacts of UNFCCC on SA economy.
Earthlife Africa	Proposed elements of the CDM mechanism (Earthlife Africa 2000)
EDRC	EDRC has been involved in climate change capacity building for government (Wamukonya & Spalding-Fecher 2000), petroleum policy development, CDM case studies (Wamukonya & Tyani 2000; Thorne, Spalding-Fecher & Wamukonya 2000) and climate change policy for government (Spalding-Fecher 2000). More recently worked on assessing damage costs of climate change, industrial energy efficiency and CDM training (FEE research on the economics of climate change 2001).
Enerwise	Impacts of UNFCCC on SA economy
ERI	Mitigation study on bulk energy supply (Roos 2000).
Eskom	Research into the climate change issues pertaining to the power sector has been strengthened (Eskom 1998). Projects ESKOM are researching or have commissioned include: drought cycles risk, the impacts of local, regional and global climate change, transboundary transport of pollutants, mitigation of South Africa’s greenhouse gas emissions, the effect of anthropogenic aearosols on rainfall, a feasibility study of a CDM mitigation program for energy efficient housing (Turner 2000). Eskom also coordinated the mitigation study of the SA Country Studies (Roos 2000).
IEF	The IEF facilitates thinking on the obligations and opportunities of climate change in South Africa. Key issues in the SA position to CoP have been defined (IEF 2000a) with emphasis on key emerging issues for negotiations on Kyoto mechanisms (IEF 2000b).
IFS	Final report on mitigation component of SA Country Study on Climate Change (Roos 2000).
IIEC	Research on opportunities for win-win climate change interventions, namely solar water heating, minimum energy performance standards, Kutlwanong housing and green finance (IIEC 2000a-d). Latest research on rural electrification through wind power and solar home systems (FEE research on the economics of climate change 2001).
KPMG	KPMG is inolved in strategic work for business and the development of aspects of a national climate change strategy (Visser 2000)
MEPC	Training to government officials on global climate change. Application of CDM.
NBI	NBI’s climate research group is investigating the effects of elevated CO₂, enhanced UV-B radiation, and changes in water availability and altered incidents of frost occurrence on the indigenous flora and vegetation of southern Africa (NBI 2000)
Natural Capital CC	National strategy on CDM (Goldblatt 2000)
Peer Consultants	CDM implementation studies (Peer Consultants 1998)
Energy Transformations CC	Technically coordination of South-South-North project on Eligibility criteria and indicators for sustainable development as applied to the appraisal of CDM projects. Also lead designer of GEF barrier removal project in the region (SA, Namibia and Malawi) (Thorne 2000)
Universities (UCT, UW, UN, UZ)	UCT involved mainly in climate modelling and detection, climate downscaling and climate variability (Hewitson 2001). Most universities working on vulnerability and adaptation studies are funded by NRF research grants. UP, Faculty Biological Sciences and Agriculture, research on economic impacts of climate change on agriculture. UP, Faculty Economics and Management Sciences, research on energy taxation.
Wiechers Environmental Consulting CC	Mitigation study on industrial processes (Borland et al., forthcoming) and national communications study.
SA Weather Service	Runs the Cape Point Global Atmosphere Watch. The objective is to monitorteh long-term evolution of atmospheric composition on global and regional scales in order to assess any contribution to climate change, to detect (early warning) climate change, and crucial environmental impact issues resulting from human origin (Coetzee, 2001).

Analysing research information

Value of research

The research value in South Africa is estimated at around R30 million for current projects or projects planned in the near future. This compares to a conservative figure of R15 million in September 2000 (de Wit 2000). Despite the fact that previous figures were underestimated, the magnitude of the difference convincly indicates that there is a trend towards intensification of research in the area of climate change.

The type of research

The results from the analysis are presented according to the break-down in national communications and key issues to South Africa as identified in section 4.2.

Figure 1 Climate change research on National Communications categories

Source: Own analysis – subject to verification

As illustrated in Figure 1 the bulk of research in South Africa is on vulnerability and adaptation (V&A), which accounts for 46% of current research costs. The major studies in this category are the vulnerability and adaptation component of the SA Country Studies on Climate Change, an Eskom study on the local, regional and global impacts of climate change, SAFARI 2000 (assuming a 10% contribution of contract value to climate change research), and several smaller studies, mainly commissioned by the NRF. The category policies and measures (P&M) accounts for 35% of research spending, with the major studies being a study on carbon sink potential in Transkei, an analysis of case studies on the CDM, South Africa’s National Communications, policy support to DEAT on carbon allocations and a study on the impacts of the UNFCCC on the South African economy. Mitigation (Mit) studies account for 9% of the research value, including the mitigation component of the SA Country Studies on Climate Change and several smaller implementation studies. Systematic observation and research (SOR) includes only the SA Weather services station at Cape Town and accounts 7% of the costs. Education, training and awareness (ETA) accounts for 2% of costs, mainly on training programmes of climate change for governent officials. The compilation of a greenhouse gas inventory (Inv) was a single project based on IPCC guidelines and accounts for 1% of research costs.

In Figure 2 the climate change research on key issues in South Africa is presented. The adverse effects on the environment (Aenv) comprises 53% of research spending and includes V&A and SOR components in Figure 2. The adverse effects on the economy (Aecon) draws 5% or research spending – including studies on the impacts of the UNFCCC on the SA economy, the linkages between CDM and EIA, and the damage costs of global climate change. The category policy development (PD) draws 19% of the research costs and includes the mitigation and policy development components of the SA Country Studies on Climate Change, several smaller implementation studies, the National Communications, the National Strategy on CDM, and the South-South-North project. Some smaller corporate climate change strategies and research on approaching economic policymaking in complex and dynamic environmental problems is also included in this category. Capacity building (CB) is the same as ETA in Figure 1, accounting for 2% of the research value. Research on the Kyoto Mechanisms (KM) accounts for 11% of research costs and include case studies on CDM, the national climate strategy and the South-South-North project. 10% of research costs falls in the category of land-use, land use change (LULUCF) mainly through a carbon sinks potential study in the Eastern Cape. There were no clearly identifiable studies under the category technology transfer (TT).

Figure 2 Climate change research on key SA issues

Source: Own analysis

Conclusions

This paper does not claim to report on all climate change research in South Africa. Nevertheless, the interactive process followed with most of the major stakeholders in the research field, leaves an above average confidence in the list of research projects. However, the exact value of research was not available in all cases and estimates were made on the basis of known value categories and substanial deviation might occur on estimations on the costs of research. In cases where no information at all on research value was existent, it was excluded from analysis. The results on the value of research is therefore conservative. Despite these limitations, and with comparison to previous work in September 2000, a few important conclusions can be derived:

There is an increase in the amount of research in the adverse impacts of global climate change economic on the South African economy. The absolute percentage is still small when compared to the total spending on climate change research. There is some anecdotal evidence that some large businesses are determining the strategic implications of global climate change on their operations. The South African economy relies heavily on coal exports, is carbon and energy intensive, and is potentially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this situation more research into the estimated economic costs of climate change to the South African economy seems to be appropriate.
The opportunities of the internal climate change developments through the Kyoto Mechanisms, notably CDM, is receiving increased research attention in South Africa. With a national strategy on CDM and severalk case studies in development, the need arises for a full-scale attraction of international investment funds to South Africa through this mechanism. There is a need, however, to developed research programmes in the area of technology transfer, as these are entrenced in both international actions on adverse effects and the CDM.

Policy development studies are declining in relative terms to total research expenses. The national communications on climate change have been finalised and a new phase on appropriate policy design and response have not really started yet.
Research in the category land use, land use change and forestry research has grown a lot in the last year. This fits in well with the principal inclusion of carbon sinks in the Bonn 2001 agreement.
There still seems to be a need on capacity building programmes, specifically on global climate change. Although a key issue to South Africa, not many clearly defined projects could be identified. The strength of South Africa’s international negotiations would depend largely on the breath and depth of expertise in the country on climate change issues.

The interaction between science and policy, identified as a key future research area in the international debate, is of importance to South Africa as well. The existing National Communications and National Strategy on CDM, could be greatly enhanced through a science-policy platform on issues relating to global climate change. So far it appears as if climate change research in South Africa are compliance-driven (to the UNFCCC), rather than taking a pro-active stance on key issues relating to South Africa. Research on how best the interaction between science and policy could be approached would provide a better framework for dealing with climate change issues in such a pro-active manner.

South Africans have only recently started to examine the implications of global climate change on the country. This paper attempted to provide an overview of existing research, with the objective to identify the needs for further research. It was pointed out that the estimated R30m (subject to verification) of current climate change research activities are illustrating an increased involvement of the country in climate change issues, but several research needs remain.

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(==to be finalised==)

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